League Two · Matchweek 14
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Barnet
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe27%
Draw25%
Barnet48%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.79
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession52%
32%Territory40%
33%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.12
6.5%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 3 for Barnet. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.