League Two · Matchweek 14
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington49%
Draw27%
Northampton25%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.06
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Northampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
40%Possession47%
31%Territory27%
30%From set plays49%
0.16Chance quality0.07
8.5%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Accrington, 4 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.