League Two · Matchweek 13
Exeter City
EXE
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter33%
Draw29%
Fleetwood38%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.28
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession51%
29%Territory36%
44%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.09
7.7%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 4 for Fleetwood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.