League Two · Matchweek 13
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cheltenham45%
Draw25%
Newport31%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.42
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession40%
26%Territory25%
34%From set plays25%
0.16Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cheltenham, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.