League Two · Matchweek 13
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bristol Rovers47%
Draw25%
Swindon28%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.34
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession39%
41%Territory36%
38%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.13
9.2%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Bristol Rovers, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.