League Two · Matchweek 13
Barnet
BAR
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet52%
Draw23%
Oldham24%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.30
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.3%
- 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession47%
40%Territory37%
28%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barnet, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.