League Two · Matchweek 12
Rochdale
ROC
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rochdale18%
Draw23%
Grimsby59%
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.92
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–110.8%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–36.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession56%
29%Territory36%
31%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.15
4.9%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 4 for Grimsby.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.