League Two · Matchweek 12
Gillingham
GIL
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham49%
Draw27%
Port Vale24%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.05
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Port Vale get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession49%
28%Territory35%
17%From set plays34%
0.11Chance quality0.11
7.7%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.