League Two · Matchweek 12
Exeter City
EXE
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter37%
Draw29%
Crewe34%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.22
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession49%
29%Territory32%
44%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.07
7.7%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 3 for Crewe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.