League Two · Matchweek 12
Chesterfield
CHS
Colchester United
COL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chesterfield48%
Draw25%
Colchester27%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.29
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession52%
39%Territory34%
18%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.08
7.1%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chesterfield, 4 for Colchester. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.