League Two · Matchweek 12
Barnet
BAR
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet57%
Draw22%
Swindon21%
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.29
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barnet will have the ball; Swindon will not mind.
52%Possession39%
40%Territory36%
28%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barnet, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.