League Two · Matchweek 11
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shrewsbury32%
Draw30%
Bristol Rovers38%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.24
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession46%
31%Territory41%
35%From set plays38%
0.08Chance quality0.07
6.1%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Shrewsbury, 4 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.