League Two · Matchweek 11
Salford City
SAL
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Salford54%
Draw24%
Crawley22%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.15
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession64%
33%Territory39%
34%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salford, 4 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.