League Two · Matchweek 11
Grimsby Town
GRI
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby67%
Draw21%
Northampton13%
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.78
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Grimsby will have the ball; Northampton will not mind.
56%Possession47%
36%Territory27%
26%From set plays49%
0.15Chance quality0.07
8.6%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grimsby, 4 for Northampton.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.