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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 11

Fleetwood Town

FLE

Rotherham United

ROT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fleetwood46%
Draw26%
Rotherham28%

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.25

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.3%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Fleetwood get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

51%Possession54%
36%Territory42%
36%From set plays5%
0.09Chance quality0.12
6.8%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fleetwood, 3 for Rotherham. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.