League Two · Matchweek 11
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Gillingham
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington37%
Draw26%
Gillingham37%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.50
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession46%
31%Territory28%
30%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.11
8.5%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Accrington, 4 for Gillingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.