League Two · Matchweek 10
Tranmere Rovers
TRA
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tranmere50%
Draw25%
Rochdale24%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.13
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
36%Territory29%
19%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.09
9.4%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tranmere, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.