League Two · Matchweek 10
Swindon Town
SWI
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon48%
Draw25%
Crewe27%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.28
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crewe will have the ball; Swindon will not mind.
39%Possession49%
36%Territory32%
26%From set plays33%
0.13Chance quality0.07
8.6%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Crewe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.