League Two · Matchweek 10
Rotherham United
ROT
Gillingham
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rotherham40%
Draw27%
Gillingham33%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.36
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession46%
42%Territory28%
5%From set plays17%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.5%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rotherham, 4 for Gillingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.