League Two · Matchweek 10
Port Vale
POR
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale23%
Draw25%
Grimsby51%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.70
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession56%
35%Territory36%
34%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.15
6.8%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 4 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.