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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 10

Crawley Town

CRA

Chesterfield

CHS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Crawley31%
Draw25%
Chesterfield44%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.75

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.5%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–17.3%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

64%Possession57%
39%Territory39%
25%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness7.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Crawley, 3 for Chesterfield. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.