League Two · Matchweek 9
Walsall
WAL
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Walsall54%
Draw25%
Crawley21%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.06
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession64%
34%Territory39%
35%From set plays25%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Walsall, 4 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.