League Two · Matchweek 9
Northampton Town
NOR
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton25%
Draw28%
Oldham47%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.45
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
27%Territory37%
49%From set plays35%
0.07Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Northampton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.