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League Two · Matchweek 9

Northampton Town

NOR

Oldham Athletic

OLD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Northampton25%
Draw28%
Oldham47%

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.45

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0112.6%
  • 1112.6%
  • 009.5%
  • 129.1%
  • 108.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession47%
27%Territory37%
49%From set plays35%
0.07Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.