League Two · Matchweek 9
Gillingham
GIL
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham49%
Draw26%
Newport25%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.17
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession40%
28%Territory25%
17%From set plays25%
0.11Chance quality0.14
7.7%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.