League Two · Matchweek 9
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe34%
Draw27%
Bristol Rovers39%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.47
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession46%
32%Territory41%
33%From set plays38%
0.07Chance quality0.07
6.5%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 4 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.