League Two · Matchweek 9
Colchester United
COL
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Colchester52%
Draw26%
Port Vale22%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.01
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
34%Territory35%
30%From set plays34%
0.08Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.