League Two · Matchweek 9
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington44%
Draw24%
Cheltenham32%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession39%
31%Territory26%
30%From set plays34%
0.16Chance quality0.16
8.5%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Accrington, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.