League Two · Matchweek 8
Swindon Town
SWI
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon52%
Draw23%
Accrington25%
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.36
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession40%
36%Territory31%
26%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.16
8.6%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Accrington. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.