League Two · Matchweek 8
Port Vale
POR
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale41%
Draw30%
Northampton29%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.03
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Port Vale get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession49%
33%Territory41%
46%From set plays27%
0.14Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 3 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.