League Two · Matchweek 8
Port Vale
POR
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale45%
Draw30%
Northampton25%
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.93
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession47%
35%Territory27%
34%From set plays49%
0.11Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 4 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.