League Two · Matchweek 8
Newport County
NEW
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport24%
Draw24%
Grimsby51%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.83
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Grimsby will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
40%Possession56%
25%Territory36%
25%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.15
8.2%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 4 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.