League Two · Matchweek 8
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood56%
Draw25%
Rochdale19%
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.96
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession50%
36%Territory29%
36%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.09
6.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fleetwood, 4 for Rochdale.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.