League Two · Matchweek 8
Crawley Town
CRA
Barnet
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crawley27%
Draw23%
Barnet50%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.97
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession58%
41%Territory42%
42%From set plays56%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.6%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crawley, 4 for Barnet. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.