League Two · Matchweek 7
Walsall
WAL
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Walsall54%
Draw26%
Port Vale20%
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.89
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession49%
34%Territory35%
35%From set plays34%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.6%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Walsall, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.