League Two · Matchweek 7
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe41%
Draw30%
Shrewsbury29%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.04
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession42%
32%Territory31%
33%From set plays35%
0.07Chance quality0.08
6.5%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 3 for Shrewsbury. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.