League Two · Matchweek 7
Chesterfield
CHS
York City
YOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chesterfield46%
Draw24%
York City30%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.50
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession64%
39%Territory33%
18%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.12
7.1%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chesterfield, 3 for York City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.