Championship · Matchweek 29
Stoke City
STK
Portsmouth
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stoke45%
Draw32%
Portsmouth24%
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.81
Over 2.5
32%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.3%
- 0–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession51%
37%Territory29%
49%From set plays52%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stoke, 5 for Portsmouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.