Championship · Matchweek 29
Burnley
BUR
Cardiff City
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley45%
Draw25%
Cardiff30%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.35
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.1%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burnley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession52%
35%Territory37%
47%From set plays22%
0.16Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burnley, 3 for Cardiff. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Burnley
Cardiff
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 156 matches, not the full season.