League One · Matchweek 19
Milton Keynes Dons
MIL
Cambridge United
CAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
MK Dons59%
Draw21%
Cambridge20%
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.20
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession50%
37%Territory38%
34%From set plays49%
0.15Chance quality0.10
9.2%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for MK Dons, 4 for Cambridge.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.