League One · Matchweek 19
Luton Town
LUT
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Luton68%
Draw19%
Wigan13%
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.98
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
34%Territory28%
29%From set plays23%
0.14Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Luton, 4 for Wigan.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.