League One · Matchweek 19
Burton Albion
BUR
Reading
REA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton39%
Draw28%
Reading33%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.23
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession49%
34%Territory29%
54%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 3 for Reading. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.