League One · Matchweek 18
Oxford United
OXF
Sheffield Wednesday
SHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oxford Utd42%
Draw26%
Sheff Wed32%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.37
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession52%
32%Territory34%
12%From set plays17%
0.18Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oxford Utd, 3 for Sheff Wed. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.