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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 18

Notts County

NOT

AFC Wimbledon

AFC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Notts County41%
Draw30%
Wimbledon29%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.05

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.7%
  • 0–011.0%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession46%
29%Territory37%
35%From set plays44%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.0%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Notts County, 5 for Wimbledon. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.