League One · Matchweek 18
Notts County
NOT
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Notts County49%
Draw26%
Wimbledon25%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.11
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession40%
38%Territory34%
14%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Notts County, 3 for Wimbledon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.