League One · Matchweek 18
Burton Albion
BUR
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton42%
Draw28%
Wigan30%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.19
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession49%
34%Territory35%
23%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 4 for Wigan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.