League One · Matchweek 18
Burton Albion
BUR
Wigan Athletic
WIG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton53%
Draw26%
Wigan22%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.00
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession47%
34%Territory28%
54%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.9%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 4 for Wigan. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.