League One · Matchweek 17
Luton Town
LUT
Oxford United
OXF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Luton54%
Draw24%
Oxford Utd22%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.17
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Luton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession54%
28%Territory32%
34%From set plays12%
0.12Chance quality0.18
4.1%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Luton, 3 for Oxford Utd. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.