League One · Matchweek 17
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Barnsley
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wimbledon43%
Draw26%
Barnsley31%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.36
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession42%
34%Territory33%
24%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.08
8.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wimbledon, 3 for Barnsley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.