League One · Matchweek 17
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Barnsley
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wimbledon39%
Draw27%
Barnsley33%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.30
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barnsley will have the ball; Wimbledon will not mind.
46%Possession60%
37%Territory26%
44%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Wimbledon, 3 for Barnsley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.