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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 16

Notts County

NOT

Stevenage

STE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Notts County30%
Draw31%
Stevenage39%

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.17

Over 2.5

37%

Both to score

45%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–113.6%
  • 1–113.4%
  • 0–012.9%
  • 1–011.3%
  • 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession38%
29%Territory37%
35%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.0%Directness9.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Notts County, 3 for Stevenage. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.