League One · Matchweek 16
Notts County
NOT
Stevenage
STE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Notts County45%
Draw28%
Stevenage27%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.11
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
39%Possession47%
38%Territory36%
14%From set plays23%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Notts County, 2 for Stevenage. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Stevenage
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.