League One · Matchweek 16
Mansfield Town
MAN
Milton Keynes Dons
MIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mansfield42%
Draw26%
MK Dons32%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.36
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
MK Dons get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession50%
41%Territory37%
15%From set plays38%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.9%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mansfield, 4 for MK Dons. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mansfield
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.