League One · Matchweek 16
Burton Albion
BUR
Luton Town
LUT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton30%
Draw26%
Luton43%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.59
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession47%
34%Territory34%
54%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.9%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 4 for Luton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.