League One · Matchweek 16
Burton Albion
BUR
Luton Town
LUT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burton33%
Draw28%
Luton39%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.40
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Luton will have the ball; Burton will not mind.
47%Possession55%
34%Territory28%
23%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.5%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Burton, 4 for Luton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.