League One · Matchweek 16
Bradford City
BRA
Doncaster Rovers
DON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bradford46%
Draw29%
Doncaster25%
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.94
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession57%
41%Territory36%
28%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bradford, 3 for Doncaster. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.