League One · Matchweek 15
Stevenage
STE
Mansfield Town
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stevenage46%
Draw29%
Mansfield25%
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.97
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
38%Possession46%
37%Territory40%
24%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.10
9.6%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stevenage, 4 for Mansfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.